The unbelievably brilliant and disappointing Obama trip

This week, as you well know by now, president Obama visited Israel, the Palestinian Authority, and Jordan.  This was a well planned and even better executed trip.  But why did he go on this trip?  Did he want to fix his relationships with Bibi Netanyahu?  Sure, but that wasn’t the major goal.  Did he intend to encourage young Israelis to push their government to work toward peace with the Palestinians?  Sure, but that too wasn’t the major goal.  Does he want to see any such peace talks?  I’m sure he does, but he didn’t do anything to push the parties into conversations - not in the first four years of his administration and neither in this trip.

Don’t let the mending of the broken relationships with Netanyahu fool you; don’t confuse the warm atmosphere Obama enjoyed everywhere he went in Israel with the real goal for his visit.  All are important in themselves, but all just a sideshow, a preparation for the real reason he flew in.  

The major goal of this trip, to my opinion, was to lay the ground ready for a possible military option against Iran.  In order to do that, Obama needed Turkey onboard.  Since Israel is the second major power in potentially fighting Iran and since the Turkish military depends heavily on weapons made by Israel, it was important for Obama to have Turkey and Israel talking to each other again.  The phone call from Netanyahu to the Turkish PM Erdogan as Obama was preparing to depart Israel was not a coincidence.  It was not a by-the-way of the last moment.  It was well planned in advanced.  First he fooled Netanyahu to think they are really friends, then he easily convinced him to call Erdogan and apologize for the Marmara incident - something Netanyahu refused to do since.  A small phone call set the stage for a future use of an American-Israeli cooperation against Iran, using Turkish airfields and air space.  Obama made it all the way from the US and spent three days in Israel schmoozing, attending ceremonies, giving lectures - all in preparation for this one phone call between Netanyahu and Erdogan.  A brilliant plan.

Winners and losers:

Winners:

• Obama, of course - he achieved everything in his plan in this trip.  The most important of them all is the resumed relationships between Turkey and Israel, as explained above.  Next to them is the good atmosphere and the positive energy he generated among Israelis.

• Netanyahu - he won in three major areas:

1. Obama never mentioned the illegal settlement expansion.  This is a subject close to Netanyahu’s heart.  By not saying a word about it, Obama signaled to Netanyahu “carry on....we’ll continue to keep a blind eye”.
2. Turkey is an important ally to Israel in a Muslim neighborhood.  A simple “I’m sorry” restored that fragile dynamics.
3. Similar to Obama, Erdogan, by accepting Netanyahu’s apology, made it clear that relationships with Israel is more important to him after all, than pushing his head into the Israeli-Palestinian mess.  Both Israel and Turkey made mistakes during the Marmara incident.  Neither country knew how to climb down from the tree she climbed on.  But now that relationships are restored, it is as if Erdogan too said to Netanyahu “carry on”.  

Losers:

• The Palestinians - sorry, Obama simply dumped them for the greater goal.
• Erdogan - as explained above, by accepting Israel’s apology, he showed his real face - how little he cares about the Palestinians.  (That is understandable, BTW.  He has plenty of problems at home.  He just realized he should have stayed out of it all along.)
• The state of Israel - This is the most disappointing part of the Obama trip.  He did not put any pressure whatsoever on Netanyahu to stop the expansion of the settlements in the occupied territories.  By not doing so Obama joined all previous US presidents in their inability or not-wishing-to bring the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to an end.  Only American pressure on Israel can help resolve this, but this is a topic for another day.  Until then, the status quo will continue, with the Palestinians remaining under occupation.

BTW, I was listening to so-called “experts” analyzing the trip on the radio in the last few days.  None of them mentioned any of the above.  Most of them mentioned the “new commitment for the peace process”.  And I’m thinking “huh?  what commitment?  He just pushed the Palestinians aside”.  The reality is that in 65 years no American president did anything serious enough to bring the sides to a long-term solution (but as I said, that is a topic for a later post - maybe).  The Palestinians are simply unlucky now with all the shit that goes on in the middle-east.  They’re too small and irrelevant to the US.  It’s sad, but true.  There was a time that it was thought that if the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is resolved, it’d preempt most of the other instability in the region - and specifically the hostility toward Israel and America.  But that is not the case anymore.  It’s clear that even if this conflict is resolved at best it’d leave a small dent on the whole middle-east mess.  The middle-east countries for their part are deep in their own mess, while the global dislike (to put it mildly) to the US has its own agenda, completely unrelated to the Israeli-Palestinian mess.

P.S.  I wrote all the above late Friday, when I was tired from the whole week.  I didn’t take the time to check the text for grammatical and other errors, to which I’m famous for.  It was more important for me to write it all down and publish it while it’s fresh on my mind.  Some corrections/additions may come at a later time.