Egypt and Syria - a somewhat personal perspective

Like everybody else, I too am listening to the recent news from Egypt and Syria.  Unlike everybody else (in America, at least), I have a very personal perspective of both situations.  I was seven years old during the six days war; I was 13 during the Yom Kippur war.  Both wars were against both Syria and Egypt.  Like most Israelis of my generation, I grew up in fear of those two war - and possibly more to come.  Unlike most Israelis, I came in direct contact with both Egyptians and [ex-]Syrian (and still Syrian in heart).  I don't know if such exposure makes the following writing any better from any analyst you listened too; it's just different, personal, direct, and straight forward.  As usual, people are welcome to post comments.  (And a small disclaimer: This post was written a while ago, but sports, beer, and laziness got in the way of posting it...on the most part it's still very valid, I think.)

Egypt

By far it was Israel's biggest threat from the very beginning of Israel's existence up to the surprising peace agreement of 1979.  But wait, there's more.  Egypt lead the Arab world in its quest for the elimination of Israel.  Today, after I personally experienced several wars - and peace treaties - I'm wiser and know how to differentiate between real threats and empty talks.  But when I was growing up, that was not the case.  And, despite the 1973 Israeli win, the Egyptians had impressive successes that started the war.  It was scary indeed. 
Well anyway, I was lucky that by the time I joined the army, there was already peace agreement signed.  Interestingly, the day I was discharged from the mandatory 3 years, minutes after I returned my gear and boarded a bus to civilian life, I heard the news that president Sa'adat was assassinated.  Wow, talking about a race to the finish line.  Had I was still a soldier, no question we would have been put on high alert. 
2-3 years later Rachel and I visited Egypt.  We did not go on an organized tour.  We traveled by bus and train with only backpacks on our backs.  The reason I mention that is because it gave us an opportunity to meet the simple, every day folks on the street.  To be honest, I wasn't too crazy about going there in the first place.  Despite the peace agreement, 1984 was politically a bad time between Israel and Egypt.  Simply put, I was scared.  But once we got there and met the people, all my fears dissipated away.  We found the Egyptians to be the nicest people and the country to be most  fascinating.  It was a great trip.  In short, I turned old fears into deep fondness and new appreciation for the Egyptian people.  Growing up in the only true democracy in the middle-east, I felt for them that they're leaving under autocracy.  I wished for their freedom.


Fast forward to now: 
During the "Arab Spring", the US and much of the free world supported the people's quest for freedom and supported the overthrown of Mubarak (the guy who took over from Sa'adat 30-something years ago).  Mubarak kept the peace agreement with Israel (and even enhanced it); he stayed an ally of the US; he kept Egypt secular.  He was good for everybody.  There was only one problem: he was a dictator.  So now he's gone, there were democratic elections, the the Muslim Brotherhood took power.  Is that what the free world really wished for?  As an Israeli, some old fear of a possible war are popping up again.  (Oh, BTW, forgive me for saying the following, but Mubarak, for his part, made a fatal mistake.  He did not crush the demonstrations; he took an indecisive stance.  Well, in the Muslim/Arab world you can't do that.  You either crush the opposition or you're getting crushed - as he himself found out the hard way.  But all of that is water under the bridge now.  Other Arab rulers, however, took notes.)

What is it with middle-eastern oppressed people that they are always making the wrong choice?

• In 1979 the Iranian people overthrew the west-friendly Shah for the current extremely conservative regime.
• The people of Lebanon (less oppressed) elected Hezbollah into power.
• The Palestinians in the Gaza Strip elected Hamas.

In each of the above cases the new powers turned democracy into oppression.  And now Egypt.  Not too long ago Iran was the only fundamentalist regime in the area.  This is not the case any longer.  Ironically, freedom and the prospect of democracy yielded exactly the opposite.  So maybe we gotta be more careful of what we wish for.
(In a footnote, in 2003, just before the US invaded Iraq, I said to the guys at the lunch table "don't do it".  Don't do it not because Saddam Husein was such a great guy.  I recognized, like everybody else, that he was a ruthless son of a bitch.  And I didn't have any intelligence about the weapons of mass destruction. But I knew something bigger than both point which was a "DUH!" and I still can't believe that the Bush administration ignored it completely:  Saddam kept Iran in check.  It is really that simple.  By removing him the US opened the door for Shiite Islam to move further west - towards Israel.  I mean, how much of a genius do you have to be to foresee that?  Really.....  And that's the reason why I said to my buddies "don't do it".  But Bush and company did it anyway, and the rest is history. Talking about making wishes.)

So what, am I justifying autocracy over free choice of the people?  Of course not.  I'm supporting the US decision to stay out of it and not support Mubarak.  My heart goes to the Egyptian people for what they got instead (so far).  Anybody who listens to the media coverage knows well that this is not what the majority of Egyptians wished for.  The fear is, of course, that the Muslim Brotherhood would capture power for decades to come, that it would suppress democracy the way it was done in Iran and in the Gaza Strip. 

Just like the best analysts out there, I too don't have a clue what will the future be.  But I do know this:

• Mohamed Morsi (the new president) is not Mubarak.  He will not be a dictator.  Why?  Because the military still governs Egypt - at least in the near term.  I know, I know.  What do you mean "the military is in power?  Weren't there just free elections?"  Yes, there were.  Twice.  Once for the parliament; a second for the presidency.  Don't try to understand it `cause it doesn't make sense to the 'democratic thinking mind'.  For now just remember this:  It would take a lot for any elected Egyptian president to weaken the military and get it obeying a democratically elected executive branch.
• Contrary to [mostly] Israeli fears, I don't think Egypt would turn to fundamental Islam - like Iran.  The reason is that unlike Iran, Egypt doesn't have any exports (i.e., no oil).  It's a poor country of 80-90 millions, who depends heavily both on tourism and financial aid from the US.
• Also unlike Iran, the Egyptian people discovered their own strength.  They already overthrew one dictator; they know how to do it.  Women [who with to] already walk in jeans, shirts, and no head cover.  It'd take a lot to put the secular jinni back into the bottle - if the Muslim Brotherhood would wish to do so (which I don't think they would).
• Also keep in mind that most Egyptians did not elect Morsi.  From all the candidates that were left, there was a runoff between him and the old regime guy.  In this runoff, only 24% of Egyptians voted - because the majority of Egyptians didn't want either of them so they simply didn't vote.  In other words, most of Egypt is not happy with the post-Mubarak development.  Expect to hear the Egyptian street again.
  

Syria

Unlike my above take on Egypt, which was mostly analytical  the following is much more personal.  It contains both analysis, but feelings too.  You see, I grew up under Syrian guns - literally - up to age 7.  While my community was not attacked directly, we were close enough.  Even though I was only 7 years old, I remember the euphoria of the Six Days war win.  But I also remember the damp, moldy, and cold bomb shelter we slept in right next to the kindergarten.  I also remember the pinch in the heart when we learned about those who went to war and never returned - a felling we got to experience so many more over the following decades. 

It was Saturday, Yom Kippur, October 6, 1973.  We were sitting in the swimming pool, which was overlooking the northern Israeli border with Lebanon and Syria.  Suddenly we saw a few fighter jets over our heads.  Now you have to understand the scene.  In Israel, nothing is moving on Yom Kippur.  Nothing.  The entire country is dead.  No radio, no TV, no traveling - nothing.  So the instant we saw the jets we knew something is going on.  Also, by age 13 I was able to identify all jets - whether American made (Israeli) or Soviets (Syrians).  We easily identified the Syrian Mig flying right over our heads.  The war has started.

Syrian tanks took back the Golan Heights (which Israel occupied 6 years earlier) and got as close as 5-6 miles from our kibbutz.  We laid awake at night listening to the fights, hoping for an Israeli win, worried about our own existence.  It was scary, very scary.  The day times were better - since our help was needed either on the farm or helping spotting enemy jets from the top of the silo.  

Israel occupied  the Golan Heights and Mt Hermon during the Six Days war and re-occupied them at the Yom Kippur war.  Included in those areas were several Druze and Arab villages.  It wasn't their choice - these villages got annexed by Israel in an act of war.  Overnight these folks were separated from their relatives on the other side of the new border.  On the positive side (or at least that's the way we thought of it), their quality of life changed dramatically.  They discovered lifestyle like they never had before under Syrian regime.  They discovered Israeli commerce.  They worked for us, they opened tourist services, they enrolled in Israeli universities, they enjoyed healthcare like never before - etc.  In short, our lives mingled in all aspects. 

But that is not all.  Northern Israel, where I come from, is an area where Jews, Arabs (Muslims, Christians, and a few other flavors), Druze (non-Arab Muslims), and a few other people of different ethnic origins - all live together in harmony (well, at least not in hostility). That mingle of ethnics  extends throughout  the middle-east.  But, unlike northern Israel, in Lebanon and Syria (and beyond) such groups don't get along that well. It's hard to explain to an outsider, but in the middle-east you usually hate and fight those who are not of your own people.  That's how was always the case throughout history.  And now is no different. 

Bashar Al-Asad's dad, Hafez, came to power via a coup.  I'm not going to spell out Syria's history here; I just want to point out that the Asad family does not belong to the majority Suni, but to a small faction of Islam - Alawite.  Why is this significant?  Well, read the previous paragraph again:  In the traditional middle-east if you're not like me, you're my enemy.  The media still goes back-and-forth if it's a full blown civil war in Syria or if it's just a strive for democracy.  Let me assure you this:  It's the former one.  Do you know when it became a full blown civil war?  In the first week of demonstrations.  The minute Asad did not crush the opposition, the civil war started and his fate was determined.  Now it's just a matter of time (and a few more thousands of dead Syrians) until the Suni majority overthrows him.  I'm not trying to be a prophet; I'm not trying to say "you heard it here first";  it's just too plain simple and straight forward. 

While Egypt had two elections already where the people have spoken, the situation in Syria is a lot more foggy.  The future is unknown.  Asad will be killed - I can guarantee you that.  The question what will be after Asad.  If I had to guess, I would say that something similar to the power sharing in Lebanon is a possibility. 

If you read the longer blog about Liam etc., you know by now that I'm an optimist.  In the darkest situations I always find the crack in which light comes through.  What good shall come of the Syrian mess, you may ask.  Well, for one thing, once Asad is removed the Suni majority is likely to take over.  In such case, ties with Iran are likely to be broken.  Influence from moderated Suni regimes might show - especially if financial aid is on the line.  In short, the fall of Asad may be a good thing for the entire region.

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Bottom line:At the end of the day, nobody really knows what the future may hold.  Remember that only a year and a half ago all the above was completely imaginary.  In Egypt, despite two democratic elections, the situation is still foggy. In Syria, on the other hand, despite it being a much more complex country to begin with and despite the current mess, the long term situation (after one or two civil wars) might be pretty clear. 

Lastly, me the optimist again (I never left):  When Muammar Gaddafi was on the ropes in Libya, all the experts predicted a civil was since it's a tribal society.  And today it's a secular democracy-on-the-way.  So anything is possible.  I believe in regular people.  It goes back to the above - all the Egyptians and Syrian people I met during the years.  All good people who just want to live in peace, provide for their families, educate their children.  These are the real forces I believe will eventually prevail.